ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

57.14%

Marton Fucsovics

Hungary

42.86%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.55

Market probability

79.13% / 20.87%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1711).

Player Comparison

1813.6 Elo 1711.0

1606.6 Elo (surface) 1682.6

31 Wins 276

12 Wins (surface) 165

11 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.993 Dominance ratio 1.064

39 Rank 121

21.9 Age 34.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marton Fucsovics

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Marton Fucsovics

1st Serve In %

61.7%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

63.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

61.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Marton Fucsovics

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

69.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

31.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 1 Marton Fucsovics

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #39

Marton Fucsovics #122

6-4 6-4 6-2

3 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 11

60 Service Points 93

47 First Serve In 59

37 First Serve Won 38

13 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 8

0 Break Points Faced 13

24 Winners 21

22 Unforced Errors 42

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Clay Madrid Masters · 2022-05-02

Q1

Marton Fucsovics #50

Daniel Merida Aguilar #678

6-4 6-3

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 69

34 First Serve In 32

23 First Serve Won 21

14 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marton Fucsovics — Prediction