ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

48.83%

Marin Cilic

Croatia

51.17%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.98

Market probability

52.11% / 47.89%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1794.3 Elo 1787.4

1548.6 Elo (surface) 1781.1

29 Wins 636

10 Wins (surface) 393

10 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.954 Dominance ratio 0.950

63 Rank 85

21.9 Age 37.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marin Cilic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Marin Cilic

1st Serve In %

61.7%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

1.02

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Marin Cilic

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

72.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 1 – 0 Marin Cilic

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

1. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Marin Cilic #85

3-6 6-1 6-1

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

78 Service Points 66

44 First Serve In 33

32 First Serve Won 22

19 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 7

32 Winners 25

31 Unforced Errors 35

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Clay Murcia CH · 2025-03-17

R32

Daniel Merida Aguilar #342

Marin Cilic #143

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 2

61 Service Points 68

46 First Serve In 36

29 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic — Prediction