ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

42.38%

Liam Draxl

Canada

57.62%

Average Odds

1.68 / 2.19

Market probability

56.59% / 43.41%

Why This Prediction?

Liam Draxl is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1613 vs 1407), the advantage of playing in his home country and a stronger return game (38.1% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1739.9 Elo 1639.5

1407.1 Elo (surface) 1613.3

25 Wins 13

6 Wins (surface) 10

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.940 Dominance ratio 0.946

63 Rank 209

21.8 Age 24.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Liam Draxl

1st Serve In %

61.7%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Liam Draxl

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 0 Liam Draxl

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Liam Draxl #209

3-6 6-4 6-4

1 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 1

116 Service Points 88

75 First Serve In 53

42 First Serve Won 36

20 Second Serve Won 15

12 Break Points Saved 2

17 Break Points Faced 8

50 Winners 21

63 Unforced Errors 20

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl — Prediction