ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur

ATP Clay Umag · F

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

67.29%

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

32.71%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.87

Market probability

67.06% / 32.94%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1790 vs 1743), a higher Elo rating (1746 vs 1684) and a stronger serve (62.1% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1746.4 Elo 1683.9

1789.6 Elo (surface) 1743.0

24 Wins 255

17 Wins (surface) 85

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.955 Dominance ratio 1.089

82 Rank 108

21.8 Age 34.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Damir Dzumhur

1st Serve In %

61.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Damir Dzumhur

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

50.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 0 Damir Dzumhur

Clay Umag · 2026-07-18

F

Daniel Merida Aguilar #82

Damir Dzumhur #108

6-2 5-7 6-2

1 Aces 0

8 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 79

55 First Serve In 51

34 First Serve Won 25

16 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 12

38 Winners 20

41 Unforced Errors 27

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur — Prediction