ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

34.71%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

65.29%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.71

Market probability

44.42% / 55.58%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1796 vs 1636), a stronger serve (69.2% vs 62.9% of service points won) and a stronger return game (44.3% vs 34.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1825.4 Elo 1837.9

1635.8 Elo (surface) 1795.9

32 Wins 438

13 Wins (surface) 291

12 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.049 Dominance ratio 1.309

39 Rank 24

21.9 Age 28.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

61.7%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 0 Andrey Rublev

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #39

Andrey Rublev #24

6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4

9 Aces 13

9 Double Faults 8

128 Service Points 133

80 First Serve In 80

59 First Serve Won 63

27 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 11

36 Winners 42

43 Unforced Errors 46

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction