ATP tennis predict — Daniel Jade vs Ryan Peniston

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Jade

France

18.13%

Ryan Peniston

Great Britain

81.87%

Average Odds

2.65 / 1.19

Market probability

30.99% / 69.01%

Why This Prediction?

Ryan Peniston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1575 vs 1405), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1542 vs 1427) and more wins on hard courts (97 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1405.2 Elo 1574.8

1427.4 Elo (surface) 1541.9

1 Wins (Challenger) 124

0 Wins (surface) 97

1 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.875 Dominance ratio 1.055

643 Rank 454

17.5 Age 30.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Jade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Ryan Peniston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Jade Ryan Peniston

1st Serve In %

—

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.49

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Jade Ryan Peniston

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

27.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Jade 0 – 0 Ryan Peniston

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Daniel Jade #643

Ryan Peniston #508

6-7 6-2 6-2

4 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 6

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

41 First Serve Won 44

16 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniel Jade vs Ryan Peniston — Prediction