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Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Daniel Altmaier

Germany

42.52%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

57.48%

Average Odds

4.15  /  1.23

Market probability

22.86%  /  77.14%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1831 vs 1764), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1658 vs 1616) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 8).

Player Comparison

1764.2 Elo 1830.9
1616.1 Elo (surface) 1658.0
116 Wins 211
43 Wins (surface) 103
8 Last 15 form 9
1 Head-to-head wins 2
1.027 Dominance ratio 0.798
60 Rank 13
27.9 Age 24.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Altmaier

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Altmaier Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

61.3%
53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%
65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.1%
44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%
26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50
0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35
0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%
63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%
68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%
50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.5%
39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.58
0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Altmaier Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

61.4%
54.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%
35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%
65.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Altmaier 1 – 2 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Lorenzo Musetti #15

Daniel Altmaier #65

6-4 6-2
2 Aces 0
3 Double Faults 5
56 Service Points 56
24 First Serve In 34
18 First Serve Won 27
10 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 2
6 Break Points Faced 3
11 Winners 21
27 Unforced Errors 21
1.2 Average Odds 4.2
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2022-08-15

Q1

Lorenzo Musetti #33

Daniel Altmaier #80

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3
3 Aces 5
3 Double Faults 1
105 Service Points 103
65 First Serve In 64
46 First Serve Won 45
22 Second Serve Won 16
8 Break Points Saved 7
11 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Cordenons CH · 2020-08-31

QF

Daniel Altmaier #221

Lorenzo Musetti #258

7-6(4) 6-2
3 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 1
63 Service Points 71
34 First Serve In 50
28 First Serve Won 33
15 Second Serve Won 7
2 Break Points Saved 7
3 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Trieste CH · 2020-08-24

R32

Lorenzo Musetti #280

Daniel Altmaier #218

6-3 6-2
3 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 2
60 Service Points 47
34 First Serve In 26
24 First Serve Won 17
15 Second Serve Won 7
1 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Daniel Altmaier — Last 10

L L W L W L W L W L

Lorenzo Musetti — Last 10

L W L W W W L W L W