ATP tennis predict — Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Dane Sweeny

Australia

49.81%

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

50.19%

Average Odds

2.20 / 1.64

Market probability

42.71% / 57.29%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1711.1 Elo 1750.0

1627.5 Elo (surface) 1718.0

26 Wins 34

23 Wins (surface) 28

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.058 Dominance ratio 0.904

110 Rank 153

25.6 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Tristan Schoolkate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Tristan Schoolkate

1st Serve In %

62.8%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

43.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Tristan Schoolkate

Break Points Saved %

53.4%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dane Sweeny 1 – 0 Tristan Schoolkate

Hard Brisbane 1 CH · 2026-02-02

F

Dane Sweeny #151

Tristan Schoolkate #114

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4)

4 Aces 23

4 Double Faults 5

105 Service Points 106

68 First Serve In 62

55 First Serve Won 51

18 Second Serve Won 27

5 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Dane Sweeny vs Tristan Schoolkate — Prediction