ATP tennis predict — Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Dane Sweeny

Australia

25.86%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

74.14%

Average Odds

12.80 / 1.04

Market probability

7.51% / 92.49%

Why This Prediction?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1860 vs 1577), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1708 vs 1502) and better recent form (11 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

1577.2 Elo 1859.8

1502.1 Elo (surface) 1708.1

25 Wins 215

22 Wins (surface) 107

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.095 Dominance ratio 0.675

123 Rank 14

25.6 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

62.9%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dane Sweeny 0 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Dane Sweeny #123

Lorenzo Musetti #14

3-6 6-1 6-2 6-2

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 7

102 Service Points 111

71 First Serve In 75

47 First Serve Won 41

19 Second Serve Won 17

7 Break Points Saved 9

10 Break Points Faced 17

36 Winners 31

28 Unforced Errors 40

12.8 Average Odds 1.0

Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction