ATP tennis predict — Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Dane Sweeny

Australia

30.60%

Corentin Moutet

France

69.40%

Average Odds

3.30 / 1.34

Market probability

28.88% / 71.12%

Why This Prediction?

Corentin Moutet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1697 vs 1475), a higher Elo rating (1686 vs 1555) and more wins on hard courts (79 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1555.2 Elo 1686.2

1475.5 Elo (surface) 1697.5

24 Wins 162

21 Wins (surface) 79

9 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.089 Dominance ratio 0.919

123 Rank 62

25.6 Age 27.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Corentin Moutet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Corentin Moutet

1st Serve In %

62.9%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.4%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.5%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Corentin Moutet

Break Points Saved %

51.9%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.1%

58.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dane Sweeny 0 – 0 Corentin Moutet

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Dane Sweeny #123

Corentin Moutet #62

7-6 6-4 3-0

1 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 8

92 Service Points 95

60 First Serve In 49

37 First Serve Won 32

17 Second Serve Won 17

8 Break Points Saved 10

11 Break Points Faced 16

16 Winners 32

18 Unforced Errors 48

3.3 Average Odds 1.3

Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet — Prediction