ATP tennis predict — Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Dane Sweeny

Australia

61.01%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

38.99%

Average Odds

1.98 / 1.73

Market probability

46.63% / 53.37%

Why This Prediction?

Dane Sweeny is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (42.4% vs 34.4% of return points won) and a stronger serve (61.6% vs 57.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1712.4 Elo 1719.9

1630.9 Elo (surface) 1695.0

74 Wins (Challenger) 159

68 Wins (surface) 126

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.167 Dominance ratio 0.942

112 Rank 185

25.7 Age 34.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dane Sweeny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–7L · 36.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–4L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–10L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

41 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

61.8%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

40.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.6%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.8%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dane Sweeny Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.7%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dane Sweeny 1 – 1 Bernard Tomic

Hard Brisbane 3 CH · 2025-11-10

QF

Dane Sweeny #231

Bernard Tomic #186

5-7 6-3 6-2

1 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 1

104 Service Points 96

66 First Serve In 56

44 First Serve Won 35

21 Second Serve Won 21

7 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Palmas Del Mar CH · 2023-06-12

R16

Bernard Tomic #378

Dane Sweeny #232

6-4 7-6(3)

4 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 66

44 First Serve In 34

33 First Serve Won 24

15 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 7