ATP tennis predict — Dan Martin vs Lautaro Midon

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Dan Martin

Canada

13.60%

Lautaro Midon

Argentina

86.40%

Average Odds

3.47 / 1.26

Market probability

26.64% / 73.36%

Why This Prediction?

Lautaro Midon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1679 vs 1170), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1601 vs 1201) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1169.7 Elo 1678.6

1200.7 Elo (surface) 1600.9

0 Wins (Challenger) 73

0 Wins (surface) 7

0 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.724 Dominance ratio 1.033

636 Rank 193

27.3 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dan Martin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Lautaro Midon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dan Martin Lautaro Midon

1st Serve In %

55.0%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.5%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

15.4%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.00

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dan Martin Lautaro Midon

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

100.0%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dan Martin 0 – 0 Lautaro Midon

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

1. round

Lautaro Midon #193

Dan Martin #636

6-3 5-7 6-4

1 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 6

97 Service Points 88

61 First Serve In 36

37 First Serve Won 26

15 Second Serve Won 28

2 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Dan Martin vs Lautaro Midon — Prediction