ATP tennis predict — Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - 1. round 23:30

Predicted probability

Dan Martin

Canada

18.03%

Alex Rybakov

USA

81.97%

Average Odds

2.86 / 1.35

Market probability

32.07% / 67.93%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Rybakov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1527 vs 1141), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1492 vs 1171) and more wins on hard courts (73 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1140.8 Elo 1527.0

1171.0 Elo (surface) 1491.8

1 Wins (Challenger) 120

1 Wins (surface) 73

1 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.724 Dominance ratio 1.072

620 Rank 478

27.4 Age 29.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dan Martin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Alex Rybakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dan Martin Alex Rybakov

1st Serve In %

55.0%

69.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.5%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

15.4%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.0%

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.00

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

55.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dan Martin Alex Rybakov

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

100.0%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.7%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dan Martin 0 – 0 Alex Rybakov

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Alex Rybakov #478

Dan Martin #620

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 11

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

22 First Serve Won 30

15 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Dan Martin vs Alex Rybakov — Prediction