ATP tennis predict — Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Clay Umag · QF

Predicted probability

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

26.85%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

73.15%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.47

Market probability

35.42% / 64.58%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Arnaldi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1804 vs 1715), a higher Elo rating (1776 vs 1662) and a stronger serve (62.9% vs 58.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1662.3 Elo 1776.0

1715.0 Elo (surface) 1804.2

253 Wins 100

83 Wins (surface) 38

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.056 Dominance ratio 1.007

108 Rank 34

34.2 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.2%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.1%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.6%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Damir Dzumhur 0 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi

Clay Umag · 2026-07-16

QF

Damir Dzumhur #108

Matteo Arnaldi #34

7-6 6-7 7-6

2 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 5

122 Service Points 137

83 First Serve In 74

61 First Serve Won 54

19 Second Serve Won 33

8 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 10

30 Winners 63

28 Unforced Errors 77

2.7 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R32

Matteo Arnaldi #44

Damir Dzumhur #63

6-3 6-4

6 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

77 Service Points 64

42 First Serve In 38

31 First Serve Won 23

21 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction