ATP tennis predict — Damir Dzumhur vs Mathys Erhard

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

64.85%

Mathys Erhard

France

35.15%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.10

Market probability

77.21% / 22.79%

Why This Prediction?

Damir Dzumhur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1689 vs 1509), a higher Elo rating (1673 vs 1597) and more wins on hard courts (153 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1673.0 Elo 1597.2

1688.6 Elo (surface) 1508.8

239 Wins (Challenger) 75

71 Wins (surface) 17

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.920 Dominance ratio 1.075

104 Rank 359

34.2 Age 24.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Mathys Erhard

1st Serve In %

61.5%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.2%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

62.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.1%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Mathys Erhard

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

65.1%

Break Points Converted %

50.6%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

51.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Damir Dzumhur 0 – 0 Mathys Erhard

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Mathys Erhard #359

Damir Dzumhur #104

6-3 7-6

3 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 1

66 Service Points 57

41 First Serve In 36

27 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.1 Average Odds 1.2

Damir Dzumhur vs Mathys Erhard — Prediction