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Damir Dzumhur vs Alex Molcan — Prediction

ATP Clay Umag · SF

Predicted probability

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

28.06%

Alex Molcan

Slovakia

71.94%

Average Odds

2.74  /  1.44

Market probability

34.45%  /  65.55%

Why This Prediction?

Alex Molcan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1833 vs 1729), a higher Elo rating (1789 vs 1673) and a stronger serve (66.4% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1673.0 Elo 1789.2
1728.8 Elo (surface) 1833.3
254 Wins 88
84 Wins (surface) 49
8 Last 15 form 12
1 Head-to-head wins 2
1.028 Dominance ratio 1.209
108 Rank 101
34.2 Age 28.6
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alex Molcan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Alex Molcan

1st Serve In %

61.5%
62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%
68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%
52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

41.2%
30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%
52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.27
0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.1%
60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.6%
69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%
48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%
34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%
58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.16
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Damir Dzumhur Alex Molcan

Break Points Saved %

59.5%
60.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.6%
38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%
64.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%
52.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Damir Dzumhur 1 – 2 Alex Molcan

Clay Umag · 2026-07-17

SF

Damir Dzumhur #108

Alex Molcan #101

3-6 6-4 6-3
5 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 3
84 Service Points 107
44 First Serve In 80
30 First Serve Won 47
24 Second Serve Won 15
3 Break Points Saved 9
6 Break Points Faced 13
26 Winners 34
39 Unforced Errors 57
2.7 Average Odds 1.4
Hard Montpellier · 2022-01-31

R32

Damir Dzumhur #152

Alex Molcan #72

7-6(5) 6-0
4 Aces 1
1 Double Faults 3
59 Service Points 68
37 First Serve In 42
26 First Serve Won 25
13 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 2
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Bratislava 2 CH · 2021-11-08

QF

Alex Molcan #106

Damir Dzumhur #158

6-1 4-6 6-3
6 Aces 10
2 Double Faults 3
100 Service Points 77
75 First Serve In 53
45 First Serve Won 30
12 Second Serve Won 11
10 Break Points Saved 5
13 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Wimbledon · 2021-06-28

Q2

Alex Molcan #158

Damir Dzumhur #128

6-2 7-6(2)
1 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 3
67 Service Points 69
43 First Serve In 41
28 First Serve Won 27
13 Second Serve Won 9
8 Break Points Saved 6
11 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Damir Dzumhur — Last 10

L L W L L W W W W L

Alex Molcan — Last 10

L L L L W W L W W W