ATP tennis predict — Dali Blanch vs Matthew William Donald

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · R16 16:00

Predicted probability

Dali Blanch

USA

58.20%

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

41.80%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.33

Market probability

60.36% / 39.64%

Why This Prediction?

Dali Blanch is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1587), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1614 vs 1566) and a stronger return game (40.3% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1611.6 Elo 1586.9

1614.3 Elo (surface) 1565.8

63 Wins (Challenger) 15

52 Wins (surface) 12

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.055 Dominance ratio 0.766

330 Rank 468

23.6 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Dali Blanch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dali Blanch Matthew William Donald

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.2%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Dali Blanch Matthew William Donald

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

53.4%

Break Points Converted %

51.2%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Dali Blanch 0 – 0 Matthew William Donald

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Dali Blanch #330

Matthew William Donald #468

6-3 6-1

5 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 16

13 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.3

Dali Blanch vs Matthew William Donald — Prediction