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Daisuke Sumizawa vs Kosuke Ogura — Prediction

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Daisuke Sumizawa

Japan

37.71%

Kosuke Ogura

Japan

62.29%

Average Odds

3.38  /  1.28

Market probability

27.47%  /  72.53%

Why This Prediction?

Kosuke Ogura is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1382 vs 1274), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1411 vs 1271) and more aces per game (0.19 vs 0.09).

Player Comparison

1274.0 Elo 1381.7
1271.4 Elo (surface) 1410.9
3 Wins (Challenger) 17
3 Wins (surface) 10
3 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.724 Dominance ratio 1.063
1582 Rank -
27.6 Age 30.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daisuke Sumizawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Kosuke Ogura

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daisuke Sumizawa Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

53.7%
64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%
67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%
59.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.21
0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daisuke Sumizawa Kosuke Ogura

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%
65.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daisuke Sumizawa 00 Kosuke Ogura

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Kosuke Ogura #-

Daisuke Sumizawa #1582

7-6 7-6
7 Aces 5
8 Double Faults 2
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
34 First Serve Won 37
21 Second Serve Won 15
5 Break Points Saved 4
8 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Daisuke Sumizawa — Last 10

L L L L L L L L L W

Kosuke Ogura — Last 10

L W L W L W W L L W