ATP tennis predict — Connor Church vs Justin Boulais

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Connor Church

Canada

13.02%

Justin Boulais

Canada

86.98%

Average Odds

8.26 / 1.05

Market probability

11.28% / 88.72%

Why This Prediction?

Justin Boulais is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1560 vs 1500), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1560 vs 1500) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1500 Elo 1559.9

1500 Elo (surface) 1559.9

0 Wins (Challenger) 45

0 Wins (surface) 45

0 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.916 Dominance ratio 0.916

- Rank 393

20.6 Age 24.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Connor Church

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Justin Boulais

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Connor Church Justin Boulais

1st Serve In %

—

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

60.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

43.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.6%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

34.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Connor Church Justin Boulais

Break Points Saved %

—

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

23.1%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Connor Church 0 – 0 Justin Boulais

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - 1. round

Connor Church #-

Justin Boulais #390

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 49

33 First Serve In 24

23 First Serve Won 14

17 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

5.7 Average Odds 1.1

Connor Church vs Justin Boulais — Prediction