ATP tennis predict — Colton Smith vs J J Wolf

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Colton Smith

USA

55.15%

J J Wolf

USA

44.85%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.41

Market probability

61.32% / 38.68%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1757 vs 1652), a better head-to-head record against J J Wolf (1-0) and a stronger return game (32.8% vs 32.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1757.2 Elo 1652.4

1617.0 Elo (surface) 1724.2

48 Wins (Challenger) 103

37 Wins (surface) 93

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.038 Dominance ratio 1.086

174 Rank 652

23.4 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

J J Wolf

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith J J Wolf

1st Serve In %

62.6%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

22.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith J J Wolf

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colton Smith 1 – 0 J J Wolf

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

J J Wolf #652

Colton Smith #174

7-6 6-3

3 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 56

40 First Serve In 31

25 First Serve Won 23

16 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Cleveland CH · 2025-01-27

SF

Colton Smith #367

J J Wolf #258

7-6(7) 6-1

8 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

64 Service Points 62

40 First Serve In 41

32 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Colton Smith vs J J Wolf — Prediction