ATP tennis predict — Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Colton Smith

USA

76.01%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

23.99%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.37

Market probability

78.60% / 21.40%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1766 vs 1522), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1616 vs 1530) and a stronger return game (42.9% vs 40.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1766.0 Elo 1522.0

1616.1 Elo (surface) 1529.9

47 Wins (Challenger) 35

36 Wins (surface) 34

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.110 Dominance ratio 1.011

181 Rank 347

23.4 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

62.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colton Smith 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Colton Smith #181

Hayato Matsuoka #347

6-3 7-5

5 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 6

67 Service Points 72

38 First Serve In 43

29 First Serve Won 28

15 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.4

Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction