ATP tennis predict — Colton Smith vs Felix Gill

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · 1. round 17:55

Predicted probability

Colton Smith

USA

64.11%

Felix Gill

Great Britain

35.89%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.42

Market probability

61.42% / 38.58%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1688 vs 1569), a stronger return game (40.7% vs 34.1% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (9 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1688.2 Elo 1568.5

1566.6 Elo (surface) 1613.7

48 Wins (Challenger) 52

37 Wins (surface) 10

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.998 Dominance ratio 0.918

197 Rank 218

23.4 Age 24.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Felix Gill

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Felix Gill

1st Serve In %

62.6%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

57.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

43.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Felix Gill

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colton Smith 0 – 0 Felix Gill

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-13

1. round

Felix Gill #218

Colton Smith #197

7-5 5-7 6-2

11 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 102

68 First Serve In 68

40 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Colton Smith vs Felix Gill — Prediction