ATP tennis predict — Colton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Colton Smith

USA

69.79%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

30.21%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.75

Market probability

65.95% / 34.05%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1548 vs 1403), more wins on hard courts (37 vs 21) and a stronger return game (40.8% vs 33.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1663.2 Elo 1699.9

1548.2 Elo (surface) 1402.7

16 Wins 31

9 Wins (surface) 2

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.844 Dominance ratio 0.950

221 Rank 129

23.5 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

62.6%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colton Smith Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.6%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.5%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colton Smith 0 – 0 Andrea Pellegrino

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Colton Smith #221

Andrea Pellegrino #129

4-6 6-3 6-4

10 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

99 Service Points 115

62 First Serve In 62

46 First Serve Won 37

18 Second Serve Won 30

7 Break Points Saved 12

9 Break Points Faced 15

34 Winners 18

37 Unforced Errors 40

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Colton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction