ATP tennis predict — Colin Sinclair vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Colin Sinclair

N. Mariana Isl.

19.97%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

80.03%

Average Odds

4.62 / 1.17

Market probability

20.21% / 79.79%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1514), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1662 vs 1517) and a stronger return game (46.5% vs 34.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1514.0 Elo 1676.6

1516.9 Elo (surface) 1662.2

58 Wins (Challenger) 130

53 Wins (surface) 119

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.186 Dominance ratio 1.205

483 Rank 229

31.7 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colin Sinclair

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colin Sinclair Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

60.3%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.1%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colin Sinclair Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

14.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.9%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colin Sinclair 0 – 0 Rio Noguchi

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-16

R16

Rio Noguchi #229

Colin Sinclair #483

6-3 6-3

7 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 27

5 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 1

9 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Colin Sinclair vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction