ATP tennis predict — Colin Sinclair vs Alibek Kachmazov

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Colin Sinclair

N. Mariana Isl.

42.28%

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

57.72%

Average Odds

2.95 / 1.35

Market probability

31.40% / 68.60%

Why This Prediction?

Alibek Kachmazov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1436 vs 1434), more wins on hard courts (14 vs 0) and more career match wins (14 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1430.9 Elo 1439.0

1434.1 Elo (surface) 1435.6

55 Wins (Challenger) 94

50 Wins (surface) 82

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.222 Dominance ratio 0.889

503 Rank 822

31.6 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Colin Sinclair

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Alibek Kachmazov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colin Sinclair Alibek Kachmazov

1st Serve In %

60.3%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.9%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.1%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.7%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.1%

46.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Colin Sinclair Alibek Kachmazov

Break Points Saved %

14.3%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.1%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.9%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Colin Sinclair 0 – 1 Alibek Kachmazov

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Colin Sinclair #503

Alibek Kachmazov #822

7-6 6-7 6-2

12 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 115

58 First Serve In 55

48 First Serve Won 43

27 Second Serve Won 30

6 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Hard Bengaluru CH · 2023-02-20

Q2

Alibek Kachmazov #342

Colin Sinclair #426

7-5 6-2

7 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 0

56 Service Points 57

31 First Serve In 34

26 First Serve Won 21

14 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Colin Sinclair vs Alibek Kachmazov — Prediction