ATP tennis predict — Coleman Wong vs Tommy Paul

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Coleman Wong

Hong Kong

50.06%

Tommy Paul

USA

49.94%

Average Odds

6.10 / 1.13

Market probability

15.63% / 84.37%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1711.3 Elo 1904.0

1720.9 Elo (surface) 1772.3

47 Wins 285

46 Wins (surface) 192

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.314 Dominance ratio 0.811

94 Rank 21

22.2 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Coleman Wong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tommy Paul

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Coleman Wong Tommy Paul

1st Serve In %

53.9%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.8%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

59.4%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.70

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.0%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.6%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Coleman Wong Tommy Paul

Break Points Saved %

75.0%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.5%

62.8%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Coleman Wong 0 – 0 Tommy Paul

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Tommy Paul #21

Coleman Wong #94

6-7 6-1 6-3 6-3

15 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 1

127 Service Points 98

63 First Serve In 54

43 First Serve Won 42

32 Second Serve Won 33

7 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 2

32 Winners 43

39 Unforced Errors 29

1.1 Average Odds 6.1

Coleman Wong vs Tommy Paul — Prediction