ATP tennis predict — Clement Chidekh vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Clement Chidekh

France

60.07%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

39.93%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.52

Market probability

73.49% / 26.51%

Why This Prediction?

Clement Chidekh is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1675 vs 1538), a higher Elo rating (1603 vs 1544) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1603.3 Elo 1544.0

1675.3 Elo (surface) 1537.9

78 Wins (Challenger) 36

66 Wins (surface) 35

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.060 Dominance ratio 1.045

208 Rank 343

25.1 Age 21.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Clement Chidekh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Clement Chidekh Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

58.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.4%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.0%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Clement Chidekh Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Clement Chidekh 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-24

R16

Clement Chidekh #208

Hayato Matsuoka #343

6-3 7-6

0 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 65

52 First Serve In 36

31 First Serve Won 27

12 Second Serve Won 13

6 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Clement Chidekh vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction