ATP tennis predict — Christopher Papa vs Leonardo Rossi

Challenger Clay Tampere challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Christopher Papa

USA

64.45%

Leonardo Rossi

Italy

35.55%

Average Odds

3.52 / 1.25

Market probability

26.21% / 73.79%

Why This Prediction?

Christopher Papa is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1530 vs 1410), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1484 vs 1433) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 59.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1530.0 Elo 1409.9

1483.7 Elo (surface) 1432.9

6 Wins (Challenger) 4

1 Wins (surface) 1

6 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.974 Dominance ratio 0.872

1032 Rank 607

None Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Christopher Papa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Leonardo Rossi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Christopher Papa Leonardo Rossi

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.6%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Christopher Papa Leonardo Rossi

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

68.4%

39.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Christopher Papa 0 – 0 Leonardo Rossi

Clay Tampere challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Leonardo Rossi #609

Christopher Papa #1037

6-2 6-2

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

56 Service Points 51

34 First Serve In 28

16 First Serve Won 22

10 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.5

Christopher Papa vs Leonardo Rossi — Prediction