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Charles Chen vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Charles Chen

China

23.29%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

76.71%

Average Odds

7.91  /  1.06

Market probability

11.82%  /  88.18%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1622 vs 1351), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1635 vs 1342) and more wins on hard courts (2 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1350.9 Elo 1621.8
1342.0 Elo (surface) 1635.4
4 Wins (Challenger) 39
4 Wins (surface) 11
4 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.815 Dominance ratio 0.737
1572 Rank 301
18.8 Age 23.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Charles Chen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Charles Chen Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

59.2%
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%
66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.1%
37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%
32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%
56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.62
0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.9%
58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%
61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.0%
44.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.2%
38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%
44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.56
0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Charles Chen Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

50.0%
64.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%
26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.7%
48.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.6%
43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Charles Chen and Petr Nesterov have never played each other.

Charles Chen — Last 10

L L L L L W L L L W

Petr Nesterov — Last 10

L W W L L L W W W W