ATP tennis predict — Charles Broom vs Toby Samuel

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Charles Broom

Great Britain

29.57%

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

70.43%

Average Odds

3.78 / 1.24

Market probability

24.70% / 75.30%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1847 vs 1597), a higher Elo rating (1702 vs 1577) and a stronger serve (64.4% vs 57.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1576.7 Elo 1701.7

1596.5 Elo (surface) 1847.1

71 Wins (Challenger) 44

52 Wins (surface) 39

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.698 Dominance ratio 0.794

280 Rank 127

28.2 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Charles Broom

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Charles Broom Toby Samuel

1st Serve In %

62.9%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.8%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.3%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

57.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Charles Broom Toby Samuel

Break Points Saved %

60.2%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.9%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Charles Broom 0 – 0 Toby Samuel

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-25

SF

Toby Samuel #127

Charles Broom #280

7-6 6-2

2 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 64

35 First Serve In 33

22 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Charles Broom vs Toby Samuel — Prediction