ATP tennis predict — Cezar Cretu vs Henrique Rocha

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Cezar Cretu

Romania

22.88%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

77.12%

Average Odds

3.90 / 1.22

Market probability

23.83% / 76.17%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1696 vs 1501), a higher Elo rating (1776 vs 1702) and a stronger serve (62.3% vs 55.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1701.5 Elo 1776.1

1500.6 Elo (surface) 1696.0

61 Wins (Challenger) 83

0 Wins (surface) 22

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.102 Dominance ratio 1.186

272 Rank 116

25.4 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Cezar Cretu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cezar Cretu Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

60.4%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.7%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.7%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.9%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.3%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.4%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Cezar Cretu Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

53.6%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Cezar Cretu and Henrique Rocha have never played each other.

Cezar Cretu vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction