ATP tennis predict — Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo

ATP Hard Laver Cup · - 14:00

Predicted probability

Casper Ruud

Norway

59.09%

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

40.91%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.91

Market probability

50.80% / 49.20%

Why This Prediction?

Casper Ruud is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2068 vs 2025), a stronger serve (67.3% vs 59.7% of service points won) and a stronger return game (37.5% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2067.7 Elo 2025.2

1923.4 Elo (surface) 1947.8

351 Wins 190

156 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 9

4 Head-to-head wins 5

1.149 Dominance ratio 0.869

17 Rank 22

27.8 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Casper Ruud Francisco Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

64.0%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.1%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

69.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Casper Ruud Francisco Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

71.8%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.3%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.2%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

47.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Casper Ruud 4 – 5 Francisco Cerundolo

Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

SF

Casper Ruud #15

Francisco Cerundolo #21

6-4 7-5

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

85 Service Points 65

57 First Serve In 40

36 First Serve Won 27

12 Second Serve Won 11

15 Break Points Saved 4

18 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R16

Francisco Cerundolo #24

Casper Ruud #6

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

53 Service Points 66

37 First Serve In 52

28 First Serve Won 28

11 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 7

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2024-09-20

RR

Francisco Cerundolo #31

Casper Ruud #9

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 2

74 Service Points 53

43 First Serve In 39

30 First Serve Won 29

16 Second Serve Won 5

3 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Paris Olympics · 2024-07-29

R16

Casper Ruud #9

Francisco Cerundolo #26

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 52

43 First Serve In 38

34 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2023-10-30

R32

Francisco Cerundolo #21

Casper Ruud #8

7-5 6-4

6 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 61

47 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2023-05-08

QF

Casper Ruud #4

Francisco Cerundolo #31

7-6(5) 6-4

4 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 6

71 Service Points 95

40 First Serve In 61

31 First Serve Won 41

16 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barcelona · 2023-04-17

R16

Francisco Cerundolo #32

Casper Ruud #3

7-6(5) 6-3

1 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 4

79 Service Points 82

55 First Serve In 55

42 First Serve Won 34

10 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Bastad · 2022-07-11

R16

Francisco Cerundolo #39

Casper Ruud #5

6-4 3-6 7-5

0 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 3

104 Service Points 93

57 First Serve In 62

37 First Serve Won 45

31 Second Serve Won 17

9 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2022-03-21

SF

Casper Ruud #8

Francisco Cerundolo #103

6-4 6-1

6 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 5

61 Service Points 57

37 First Serve In 33

31 First Serve Won 17

8 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Casper Ruud — Last 10

Francisco Cerundolo — Last 10