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Casper Ruud vs Felix Auger Aliassime — Prediction

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 07:30

Predicted probability

Casper Ruud

Norway

58.52%

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

41.48%

Average Odds

2.18  /  1.67

Market probability

43.38%  /  56.62%

Why This Prediction?

Casper Ruud is the favorite because he has more career match wins (60 vs 0), more wins on hard courts (159 vs 5) and a stronger return game (37.5% vs 35.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2078.9 Elo 2088.6
1945.7 Elo (surface) 2022.4
354 Wins 16
159 Wins (surface) 5
9 Last 15 form 10
4 Head-to-head wins 6
1.149 Dominance ratio 1.082
24 Rank 6
27.8 Age 26.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Casper Ruud

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Felix Auger Aliassime

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Casper Ruud Felix Auger Aliassime

1st Serve In %

63.7%
63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%
74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%
52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%
24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%
50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51
0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%
67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%
74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%
49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%
32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.0%
51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.22
0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Casper Ruud Felix Auger Aliassime

Break Points Saved %

69.7%
59.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%
32.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.2%
59.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%
52.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Casper Ruud 4 – 6 Felix Auger Aliassime

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2026-04-05

R16

Felix Auger Aliassime #7

Casper Ruud #12

7-5 2-2 RET
4 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 1
58 Service Points 62
35 First Serve In 45
25 First Serve Won 26
12 Second Serve Won 10
2 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R32

Felix Auger Aliassime #19

Casper Ruud #8

6-3 6-1
14 Aces 0
4 Double Faults 5
41 Service Points 48
28 First Serve In 25
24 First Serve Won 11
6 Second Serve Won 11
0 Break Points Saved 5
1 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Paris Olympics · 2024-07-29

QF

Felix Auger Aliassime #19

Casper Ruud #9

6-4 6-7(8) 6-3
14 Aces 8
4 Double Faults 2
89 Service Points 110
57 First Serve In 72
47 First Serve Won 48
19 Second Serve Won 23
0 Break Points Saved 13
1 Break Points Faced 16
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Madrid Masters · 2024-04-22

R16

Felix Auger Aliassime #35

Casper Ruud #6

6-4 7-5
3 Aces 6
4 Double Faults 0
69 Service Points 72
41 First Serve In 59
32 First Serve Won 35
14 Second Serve Won 9
2 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2022-11-14

RR

Casper Ruud #4

Felix Auger Aliassime #6

7-6(4) 6-4
5 Aces 14
1 Double Faults 3
67 Service Points 59
44 First Serve In 38
33 First Serve Won 32
18 Second Serve Won 12
0 Break Points Saved 0
0 Break Points Faced 1
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Canada Masters · 2022-08-08

QF

Casper Ruud #7

Felix Auger Aliassime #9

6-1 6-2
4 Aces 10
0 Double Faults 4
45 Service Points 47
31 First Serve In 32
23 First Serve Won 18
6 Second Serve Won 2
0 Break Points Saved 2
1 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Madrid Masters · 2021-05-03

R64

Casper Ruud #22

Felix Auger Aliassime #20

6-1 6-4
5 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 4
52 Service Points 68
41 First Serve In 46
32 First Serve Won 32
6 Second Serve Won 4
0 Break Points Saved 6
0 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Miami Masters · 2019-03-18

R128

Felix Auger Aliassime #57

Casper Ruud #98

3-6 6-1 6-2
8 Aces 2
6 Double Faults 2
74 Service Points 84
41 First Serve In 54
32 First Serve Won 34
13 Second Serve Won 9
3 Break Points Saved 7
6 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Francavilla Al Mare CH · 2018-04-23

R16

Casper Ruud #205

Felix Auger Aliassime #186

7-5 6-0
5 Aces 1
0 Double Faults 5
57 Service Points 52
39 First Serve In 32
27 First Serve Won 19
11 Second Serve Won 5
2 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lyon CH · 2017-06-12

QF

Felix Auger Aliassime #336

Casper Ruud #112

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4
9 Aces 6
8 Double Faults 5
95 Service Points 112
60 First Serve In 78
51 First Serve Won 56
15 Second Serve Won 15
0 Break Points Saved 3
1 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Casper Ruud — Last 10

W W L W L L W L W L

Felix Auger Aliassime — Last 10

W W L L W L W W L W