ATP tennis predict — Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Catania challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

40.91%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

59.09%

Average Odds

2.72 / 1.40

Market probability

33.98% / 66.02%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1764 vs 1645), a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1652) and more aces per game (0.12 vs 0.09).

Player Comparison

1651.7 Elo 1759.8

1645.2 Elo (surface) 1764.0

96 Wins (Challenger) 80

91 Wins (surface) 55

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.949 Dominance ratio 0.881

335 Rank 239

26.2 Age 27.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Sanchez Jover Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

64.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.7%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

58.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Sanchez Jover Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.6%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Sanchez Jover and Marvin Moeller have never played each other.

Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction