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Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Prediction

Challenger Clay Santa Cruz De La Sierra challenger · 1. round 02:40

Predicted probability

Carlos Maria Zarate

Argentina

30.50%

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

69.50%

Average Odds

3.13  /  1.33

Market probability

29.82%  /  70.18%

Why This Prediction?

Gonzalo Villanueva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1654 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1669 vs 1467) and a stronger return game (46.9% vs 41.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1446.2 Elo 1653.8
1466.7 Elo (surface) 1668.6
19 Wins (Challenger) 184
18 Wins (surface) 173
6 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.020 Dominance ratio 1.282
352 Rank 323
21.5 Age 31.8
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Maria Zarate

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-29.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Maria Zarate Gonzalo Villanueva

1st Serve In %

—
58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
50.0%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.51

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%
62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.8%
63.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.8%
57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%
34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%
55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28
0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Maria Zarate Gonzalo Villanueva

Break Points Saved %

—
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

—
45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.6%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Maria Zarate and Gonzalo Villanueva have never played each other.

Carlos Maria Zarate — Last 10

L L L L W W L L L W

Gonzalo Villanueva — Last 10

L L W W L L W L W W