ATP tennis predict — Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz

ATP Hard Laver Cup · - 20:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

66.81%

Taylor Fritz

USA

33.19%

Average Odds

1.28 / 2.95

Market probability

69.74% / 30.26%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2280 vs 2045), a higher Elo rating (2376 vs 2126) and a stronger return game (41.1% vs 37.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2376.5 Elo 2126.0

2280.4 Elo (surface) 2045.3

316 Wins 397

168 Wins (surface) 276

11 Last 15 form 11

5 Head-to-head wins 1

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.195

3 Rank 10

23.4 Age 28.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Taylor Fritz

1st Serve In %

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

80.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Taylor Fritz

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

65.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

74.4%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

42.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 5 – 1 Taylor Fritz

Hard Tour Finals · 2025-11-09

RR

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Taylor Fritz #6

6-7(2) 7-5 6-3

9 Aces 14

2 Double Faults 2

128 Service Points 114

82 First Serve In 85

61 First Serve Won 60

24 Second Serve Won 12

8 Break Points Saved 8

9 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo · 2025-09-24

F

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Taylor Fritz #5

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 3

63 Service Points 66

40 First Serve In 39

31 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2025-09-19

RR

Taylor Fritz #5

Carlos Alcaraz #1

6-3 6-2

5 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 1

51 Service Points 43

30 First Serve In 30

24 First Serve Won 19

14 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2025-06-30

SF

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Taylor Fritz #5

6-4 5-7 6-3 7-6(6)

13 Aces 19

3 Double Faults 6

113 Service Points 121

73 First Serve In 75

64 First Serve Won 60

23 Second Serve Won 26

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2024-09-20

RR

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Taylor Fritz #7

6-2 7-5

1 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 4

56 Service Points 65

41 First Serve In 44

33 First Serve Won 28

7 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2023-03-20

QF

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Taylor Fritz #10

6-4 6-2

6 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 57

37 First Serve In 33

28 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz — Last 10

Taylor Fritz — Last 10