ATP tennis predict — Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 03:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

86.06%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

13.94%

Average Odds

1.03 / 12.50

Market probability

92.39% / 7.61%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2291 vs 1768), a higher Elo rating (2383 vs 1895) and better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

2383.2 Elo 1895.5

2291.3 Elo (surface) 1767.8

318 Wins 102

170 Wins (surface) 58

12 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.189

3 Rank 37

23.4 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

61.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

56.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

61.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 2 – 0 Matteo Arnaldi

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2024-03-04

R64

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Matteo Arnaldi #40

6-7(5) 6-0 6-1

2 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

76 Service Points 92

43 First Serve In 52

37 First Serve Won 31

18 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Matteo Arnaldi #61

6-3 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 90

49 First Serve In 57

38 First Serve Won 37

15 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 7

1 Break Points Faced 12