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Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka — Prediction

ATP Hard Tokyo · F 11:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

66.76%

Jiri Lehecka

Czech Republic

33.24%

Average Odds

1.27  /  3.79

Market probability

74.90%  /  25.10%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2300 vs 2030), a higher Elo rating (2388 vs 2090) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 10).

Player Comparison

2387.8 Elo 2089.7
2299.8 Elo (surface) 2029.7
321 Wins 167
173 Wins (surface) 116
13 Last 15 form 10
3 Head-to-head wins 1
1.041 Dominance ratio 1.310
3 Rank 19
23.4 Age 24.9
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–1L · 90.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Jiri Lehecka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jiri Lehecka

1st Serve In %

60.3%
59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.1%
77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%
57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%
33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.5%
54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25
0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%
63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%
68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%
52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%
32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%
49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.13
0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jiri Lehecka

Break Points Saved %

57.9%
64.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%
45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%
68.1%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 3 – 1 Jiri Lehecka

Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

QF

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Jiri Lehecka #21

6-4 6-2 6-4
5 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 4
71 Service Points 86
45 First Serve In 55
38 First Serve Won 37
19 Second Serve Won 14
0 Break Points Saved 5
0 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Queen's Club · 2025-06-16

F

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Jiri Lehecka #30

7-5 6-7(5) 6-2
18 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 2
83 Service Points 100
54 First Serve In 55
47 First Serve Won 39
21 Second Serve Won 25
0 Break Points Saved 2
0 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Doha · 2025-02-17

QF

Jiri Lehecka #25

Carlos Alcaraz #3

6-3 3-6 6-4
8 Aces 7
2 Double Faults 3
96 Service Points 76
60 First Serve In 54
44 First Serve Won 40
13 Second Serve Won 9
4 Break Points Saved 4
7 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Queen's Club · 2023-06-19

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Jiri Lehecka #36

6-2 6-3
3 Aces 5
3 Double Faults 1
66 Service Points 60
42 First Serve In 36
35 First Serve Won 18
9 Second Serve Won 13
3 Break Points Saved 6
3 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Carlos Alcaraz — Last 10

W W W W W L W W W W

Jiri Lehecka — Last 10

W W W W L W W L W L