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Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar — Prediction

ATP Hard Tokyo · SF 09:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

85.81%

Jaume Munar

Spain

14.19%

Average Odds

1.10  /  6.77

Market probability

86.02%  /  13.98%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2386 vs 1956), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2297 vs 1940) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

2386.1 Elo 1956.3
2296.5 Elo (surface) 1940.4
320 Wins 176
172 Wins (surface) 74
13 Last 15 form 9
3 Head-to-head wins 1
1.041 Dominance ratio 1.044
3 Rank 64
23.4 Age 29.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Jaume Munar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jaume Munar

1st Serve In %

60.3%
58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.1%
73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%
48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%
31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.5%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.25
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%
61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%
66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%
48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%
42.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%
45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.13
0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23
0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jaume Munar

Break Points Saved %

58.9%
59.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%
50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%
60.3%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%
44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 3 – 1 Jaume Munar

Grass Queen's Club · 2025-06-16

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Jaume Munar #59

6-4 6-7(7) 7-5
9 Aces 10
8 Double Faults 8
126 Service Points 130
66 First Serve In 78
50 First Serve Won 54
31 Second Serve Won 23
10 Break Points Saved 3
12 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Barcelona · 2022-04-18

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #11

Jaume Munar #101

6-3 6-3
3 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 3
44 Service Points 56
27 First Serve In 30
21 First Serve Won 22
15 Second Serve Won 8
0 Break Points Saved 1
0 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rio de Janeiro · 2022-02-14

R32

Carlos Alcaraz #29

Jaume Munar #89

2-6 6-2 6-1
2 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 1
84 Service Points 67
53 First Serve In 45
33 First Serve Won 25
17 Second Serve Won 10
10 Break Points Saved 4
13 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Marbella · 2021-04-05

SF

Jaume Munar #95

Carlos Alcaraz #133

7-6(4) 6-4
3 Aces 0
4 Double Faults 4
66 Service Points 82
42 First Serve In 57
30 First Serve Won 34
12 Second Serve Won 11
2 Break Points Saved 7
5 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Carlos Alcaraz — Last 10

W W W W L W W W W L

Jaume Munar — Last 10

W W W W W L W W W L