ATP tennis predict — Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 02:30

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

87.90%

Jaime Faria

Portugal

12.10%

Average Odds

1.06 / 9.56

Market probability

90.02% / 9.98%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2074 vs 1813), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1984 vs 1682) and a stronger return game (43.8% vs 40.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2074.3 Elo 1812.9

1983.8 Elo (surface) 1682.0

313 Wins 46

165 Wins (surface) 16

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.274 Dominance ratio 1.147

3 Rank 72

23.3 Age 23.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jaime Faria

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Jaime Faria

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 0 – 0 Jaime Faria

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Jaime Faria #72

4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2

5 Aces 3

11 Double Faults 4

107 Service Points 104

65 First Serve In 73

43 First Serve Won 49

13 Second Serve Won 25

5 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 7

27 Winners 43

38 Unforced Errors 29

1.1 Average Odds 9.6

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria — Prediction