ATP tennis predict — Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Tokyo · QF 03:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

81.18%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

18.82%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2383 vs 1946), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2291 vs 1962) and better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 10).

Player Comparison

2383.2 Elo 1945.6

2291.3 Elo (surface) 1962.0

318 Wins 266

170 Wins (surface) 202

12 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.034

3 Rank 46

23.4 Age 27.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

61.8%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz 2 – 0 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2025-03-05

R32

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Denis Shapovalov #28

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 8

63 Service Points 59

45 First Serve In 31

31 First Serve Won 23

10 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Roland Garros · 2023-05-29

R32

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Denis Shapovalov #32

6-1 6-4 6-2

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 10

80 Service Points 87

58 First Serve In 49

38 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 9

6 Break Points Faced 16