ATP tennis predict — Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

73.19%

Alex Michelsen

USA

26.81%

Average Odds

1.16 / 5.04

Market probability

81.29% / 18.71%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2286 vs 2012), a higher Elo rating (2381 vs 2027) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 12).

Player Comparison

2380.7 Elo 2026.5

2286.4 Elo (surface) 2011.9

317 Wins 104

169 Wins (surface) 76

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.041 Dominance ratio 1.123

3 Rank 34

23.4 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Alex Michelsen

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.0%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlos Alcaraz Alex Michelsen

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.8%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

53.0%

56.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen have never played each other.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen — Prediction