ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Catania challenger · R16 10:00

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

59.79%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

40.21%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.67

Market probability

65.44% / 34.56%

Why This Prediction?

Carlo Alberto Caniato is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (72.5% vs 60.2% of service points won), a stronger return game (44.6% vs 35.0% of return points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1743.5 Elo 1771.6

1757.4 Elo (surface) 1777.1

31 Wins (Challenger) 81

29 Wins (surface) 56

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.626 Dominance ratio 0.881

318 Rank 239

21.0 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–3L · 81.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

34 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

—

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

1st Serve Points Won %

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

—

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

41.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato and Marvin Moeller have never played each other.

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction