ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Lorenzo Berto

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

83.08%

Lorenzo Berto

Italy

16.92%

Average Odds

1.05 / 8.40

Market probability

88.89% / 11.11%

Why This Prediction?

Carlo Alberto Caniato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1686 vs 1511), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1699 vs 1522) and more career match wins (25 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1685.6 Elo 1510.9

1699.0 Elo (surface) 1522.2

25 Wins (Challenger) 2

23 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.626 Dominance ratio 1.190

386 Rank 1186

20.9 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Lorenzo Berto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Lorenzo Berto

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

67.6%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Lorenzo Berto

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

46.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato 0 – 0 Lorenzo Berto

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Carlo Alberto Caniato #386

Lorenzo Berto #1186

6-1 7-5

3 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

26 First Serve Won 18

14 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 8.4

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Lorenzo Berto — Prediction