ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro

Challenger Clay Palermo challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

61.46%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

38.54%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.67

Market probability

45.01% / 54.99%

Why This Prediction?

Carlo Alberto Caniato is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1777 vs 1705), a stronger serve (72.5% vs 61.7% of service points won) and a stronger return game (44.6% vs 28.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1758.2 Elo 1742.3

1777.4 Elo (surface) 1704.9

30 Wins (Challenger) 123

28 Wins (surface) 105

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.626 Dominance ratio 0.746

318 Rank 229

20.9 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

34.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

—

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato 0 – 1 Francesco Passaro

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Francesco Passaro #219

Carlo Alberto Caniato #452

4-6 6-4 6-4

5 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 99

62 First Serve In 63

44 First Serve Won 40

17 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro — Prediction