ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 20:40

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

31.56%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

68.44%

Average Odds

2.30 / 1.56

Market probability

40.41% / 59.59%

Why This Prediction?

Francesco Passaro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1487), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1690 vs 1503) and more wins on clay courts (21 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1486.8 Elo 1671.1

1503.0 Elo (surface) 1690.0

20 Wins (Challenger) 119

18 Wins (surface) 101

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.623 Dominance ratio 0.819

452 Rank 219

20.8 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

67.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.5%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

34.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

—

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato 0 – 0 Francesco Passaro

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Francesco Passaro #219

Carlo Alberto Caniato #452

4-6 6-4 6-4

5 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 99

62 First Serve In 63

44 First Serve Won 40

17 Second Serve Won 25

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro — Prediction