ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Andrea Pellegrino

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

22.18%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

77.82%

Average Odds

3.01 / 1.35

Market probability

30.96% / 69.04%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1705 vs 1470), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1730 vs 1488) and more wins on clay courts (191 vs 16).

Player Comparison

1469.8 Elo 1704.7

1488.3 Elo (surface) 1730.4

18 Wins (Challenger) 211

16 Wins (surface) 191

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.390 Dominance ratio 1.115

389 Rank 137

20.7 Age 29.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

—

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

67.6%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.5%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

—

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

—

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato 0 – 0 Andrea Pellegrino

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Andrea Pellegrino #137

Carlo Alberto Caniato #389

6-4 6-0

2 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

44 Service Points 38

21 First Serve In 26

12 First Serve Won 23

8 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction