ATP tennis predict — Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · SF 13:30

Predicted probability

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Italy

52.45%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

47.55%

Average Odds

1.74 / 2.00

Market probability

53.48% / 46.52%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1625.9 Elo 1680.5

1639.0 Elo (surface) 1685.2

23 Wins (Challenger) 86

21 Wins (surface) 86

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.626 Dominance ratio 0.948

534 Rank 216

20.9 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carlo Alberto Caniato

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

—

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.5%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

67.6%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.5%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carlo Alberto Caniato Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

—

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carlo Alberto Caniato 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Carlo Alberto Caniato #534

Alex Barrena #216

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

39 First Serve Won 18

5 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2

Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Alex Barrena — Prediction