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Carles Hernandez vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Carles Hernandez

Spain

10.80%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

89.20%

Average Odds

4.47  /  1.18

Market probability

20.88%  /  79.12%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1675 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating (1654 vs 1457) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1457.0 Elo 1653.6
1446.0 Elo (surface) 1674.8
0 Wins (Challenger) 41
0 Wins (surface) 13
0 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.368 Dominance ratio 0.737
784 Rank 298
25.4 Age 23.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carles Hernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carles Hernandez Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

—
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
56.3%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.2%
60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

41.4%
60.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%
48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

0.0%
37.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.12
0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carles Hernandez Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

—
64.3%

Break Points Converted %

—
26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

20.0%
51.9%

Break Points Converted %

0.0%
42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carles Hernandez and Petr Nesterov have never played each other.

Carles Hernandez — Last 1

L

Petr Nesterov — Last 10

W W L W W L L L W W