ATP tennis predict — Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca Potenza

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Carl Emil Overbeck

Denmark

54.74%

Luca Potenza

Italy

45.26%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.46

Market probability

73.15% / 26.85%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1586.1 Elo 1501.5

1606.5 Elo (surface) 1517.4

20 Wins (Challenger) 52

20 Wins (surface) 29

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 1.094

296 Rank 488

25.1 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Carl Emil Overbeck

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carl Emil Overbeck Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

64.2%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.3%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Carl Emil Overbeck Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Carl Emil Overbeck 0 – 0 Luca Potenza

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-01

qualification - round of 16

Luca Potenza #488

Carl Emil Overbeck #296

6-3 6-3

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 59

34 First Serve In 40

21 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca Potenza — Prediction